Forecast in Flux
With 17 days to go, we're far from the final forecast. But it's better to be over prepared!
Welcome to Tailwind – your daily Boston Marathon weather briefing. We’ve got a bunch of new subscribers today – thanks for joining! If you’re into this kind of obsessive forecasting, consider sharing it with another Boston runner. This is our fourth daily update, and so far… not much has changed. No big swings in the forecast yet, but that’s expected to shift once we’re inside the two-week window.
For now? Go ahead and get way too excited about the near-perfect conditions – and fully prepared to spiral when that changes.
Okay - off we go with today’s weather!
Tailwind Tracker
Will there be a tailwind? Yes! expect a big tailwind.
Temperature at Start: 40°F (4°C)
Temperature at Finish: 46°F (8°C)
Wind: W at 17 mph (27 km/h) — tailwind all the way
Precipitation Chance: 0%
Conditions: Sunny
Humidity: 48%
Race Day Impact:
Similar years at Boston have yielded times that are on average 2-3 minutes faster than the average.
The Good
You’d really have a hard time beating this race day forecast. Big tailwind. Sunny, so great for the crowds. Nice and cool all the way. Don’t overthink this one — stick to your race plan and enjoy a nice push at your back and the cheers from the spectators.
The Less Good
Okay, let’s look at this with a bit of practicality. If the current forecast holds, we’ll all be doing cartwheels down Boylston. But let’s assume things heat up more than expected — say we start around 42° and finish in the low 60s. If that’s the case, early hydration and smart pacing are key.
Boston has had plenty of years like this — cool start, sneaky warm finish. Runners go out hot, get overexcited, and pay for it in the later miles. Don’t be that person. Keep your eyes on the last 10K, not the first one.
That’s it for the briefing, check back tomorrow to see how things shift. Now, let’s kick it back to 2007 to talk about something we haven’t seen in the forecast yet — a headwind!
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2007: Nor’easter Almost Cancels Boston
This is not meant to scare you — but it might. In 2007, the temperature was perfect but the rain and wind told a different story. The high was around 50 but runners were met with torrential rain and headwinds from the East with gusts up to nearly 50mph.
Boston Marathon organizers considered cancelling the race for the first time in it’s history. Here’s the briefing they issued to participants the day before the race:
FORECAST:
The most up-to-date weather forecast calls for a predicted Spring storm on Monday, including heavy rains (potentially 3 to 5 inches), with the start temperatures in the mid to upper 30's. Wind will likely be East (in the face of the participants for most of the race) in the 20 to 25 mile per hour range, with gusts to as much as 50 miles per hour. This will produce a wind chill index of 25 to 30-degrees Fahrenheit.
RISKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RUNNERS PARTICIPATING IN COLD AND WET CONDITIONS:
Combined with the rain, we are concerned that predicted weather conditions will increase the runners' risks for a condition called hypothermia. As with any athletic competition, as a runner you are assuming the risks inherent with participation. It is your responsibility to be informed about the risks associated with running in the aforementioned conditions, and the risks of injury or illness will increase with these predicted conditions.
Ultimately, the race continued on and it was a day for finishing, not for PRing. The winning times were significantly slower than most years. Listen to these remarks from finishers courtesy of WBUR. One runner remarked:
When I left my house, my wife said “you crazy man.” But after training for so long all winter, there was no way I wasn’t gonna do it.
Boston Marathoners are some of the most resilient in the world and you are no exception! So if a Nor’easter comes, focus on finishing and channel all of the miles you put in during this training block. Remember to layer, be prepared for some wet feet and blisters, and remember to tell yourself you deserve to cross that finish line.