How we feeling, fam? I’ve always found this week to be the toughest stretch before a big marathon. You’re not quite into the final taper, but all the hardest work is behind you. So, how hard do you push? What do you wear?
Here’s my two cents—advice that cuts through the noise: don’t mess with your routine. Be smart and practical.
Whatever got you to this point will get you to the start line. The last thing you want to do is introduce a bunch of new variables—like different foods, new sleep schedules, or unfamiliar types of runs.
But here are a few productive things I’d focus on, especially when it comes to weather:
Dial in your race day kit. Know exactly what you want to wear in different conditions—and make sure you’re comfortable in it.
Lock in your fueling plan. If it’s not already second nature, practice it during your last few workouts and your final long run this weekend.
Start layering up a bit. Yes, I know this slightly contradicts the “don’t change things” rule, but the odds are it’ll be warmer on race day than it is right now. Help your body adapt. Nothing drastic—just toss on an extra long sleeve for your next few runs.
If race day were today, Tailwind is projecting marathon times to be ~0-1 minutes slower. The only variable is a potential cold rain with highs only in the 30s. Remember, you can simulate any condition on your own.
Now onto our Boston predictions. Today we’re looking at 3 scenarios.
A. Heat trumps the tailwind—most runners will slow down.
B. Wind cancels out the cool temps—expect a minor slowdown.
C. Tailwind helps, but discomfort from the elements limits gains—expect a slight boost.
Now let’s take a look at Marathon Monday 13 days out!
Tailwind Tracker
Will there be a tailwind? Yes, a strong one!
Temperature at Start: 47°F (9°C)
Temperature at Finish: 54°F (13°C)
Wind: W at 22 mph (18 km/h) — tailwind all the way
Precipitation Chance: 20%
Conditions: Cloudy
Humidity: 70%
Race Day Impact:
Similar years at Boston have yielded times that are on average 1-2 minutes faster than the average. Watch out for some humidity and sneaky warmth at the end if you’re used to cooler temps.
1991: Overthinking can also be a factor
The 1991 Boston Marathon unfolded under neutral conditions that are rare but incredibly welcome. With temperatures starting in the 50s and a light crosswind, the weather didn’t demand attention. Sometimes, you get a day like this—nothing extreme, just straightforward racing conditions that allow you to focus on the real task: running your race.
The interesting thing about this race was that it yielded one of the fastest Boston Marathons ever for the women, with 8 of the fastest times ever run, while the men ran much more conservatively. The eventual men’s winner, Hussein, went out slow because, in the previous year, he had mismanaged things and dropped out at mile 18.
It’s funny how easy it is to get in your own head.
Wanda Panfil from Poland took the win with a blistering 2:24:18, the second-fastest time for women at the time. But American athletes Kim Jones and Joan Benoit Samuelson were right there in the mix, finishing second and third in 2:26:40 and 2:26:52, respectively. Joan, of course, was the crowd favorite, her experience and toughness shining through, even though it wasn’t her day for the top spot.
On the men’s side, Irishman Andy Ronin got into an early duel but eventually faded—it was just his 3rd marathon ever, and he was definitely happy with the slower pace at the front.
Sometimes, you get a day where you don’t have to stress about the conditions. You can just focus on your strategy, trust your preparations, and go.
The full race is available on YouTube—complete with a weather report at the beginning!